I’ve always wondered why alarmists blame storms on climate change, but then go totally silent when storms are absent. Just weather?
Yesterday at WeatherBELL Analytics Saturday Summary video, 40-year veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi focused on global tropical storm activity.
Western Pacific typhoon activity near record low
On the western Pacific front, Bastardi says: “Normally this time of the year we’ve had 5 typhoons; this year we’ve only had one. And since March first this has been an almost record breaking low activity in the western Pacific.”
Quieter than normal August outlook for hurricanes
Looking at the Atlantic hurricane zones, here we see natural factors at work hampering hurricane development. One of them is dust blowing off the horn of Africa. Here Bastardi believes this area will remain quiet through most of August.
“Very very bearish” development conditions for hurricanes in the MDR
Another factor hampering hurricane formation in the main development region (MDR), Bastardi says, is the current Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern, which leads to “sinking” over the development region. Sea surface temperatures at the latitudes above the tropics are warm, and this helps to keep the lid down on hurricanes.
In the tropical main development region (MDR), dry conditions are forecast for the next two weeks, and so hurricanes will have a tougher time developing. Joe Bastardi characterizes the conditions for hurricane development in the MDR as “very very bearish”, i.e. lower than normal development potential.
But the veteran meteorologist does warn that this doesn’t mean hurricanes won’t develop in the MDR. So we need to stay on the look out for “in-close development” where storms form just off the mainland.
All in all, good news so far – especially for the Atlantic – in terms of hurricane season intensity. Let’s hope it remains that way for the rest of the season.