I've read a couple of different papers that were about modeling climate refugee numbers and movements. Each looked at different sets of outcomes. Neither discussed the domino effect of those movements on the destination cities out countries with any depth or rigour. It seems that nobody is interested in asking these hard questions and recognizing how very serious the situation could become, nor how swiftly those consequences could sweep through while countries like an out of control brush fire.
Does anyone have access to any real modeling, contingency planning, mitigation efforts? My bet is that governments have security plans that they are very unwilling to make public. Revealing those plans and the starkness of the potential reality they represent is I believe quite critical to stimulating a more significant public response to this crisis.