(German text translated by P. Gosselin)
The Federal Ministry of Transport is looking at the temperature of the North German seas. Is that really the right Ministry for this? And why has the Green Party’s Steffi Lemke put forth this question? Before we take a closer look, let’s first clarify the facts. To do this, we go to klimawandel-in-deutschland.de and read:
The temperature jump of the late 1980s is also strongly pronounced in the sea surface temperatures of the North Sea and Baltic Sea, with levels rising by 1°C (Fig. 4).
Figure 4: Sea surface temperature in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea (whole area). Chart: European Environment Agency.
The cause behind the strong warming of the late 1980s is not yet fully understood. But an important role is probably played by the oceanic cycle: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which back at that time reached maximum positive values and which afterwards were never reached again (Fig. 5).
Figure 5: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the past 140 years. NAO Winter Index. Chart: Wikipedia. By Delorme [CC BY-SA 4.0], from Wikimedia Commons.
The NAO is influenced by solar activity and is an important factor in controlling precipitation and temperature in parts of Europe.
Ignoring the NAO
Steffi Lemke ignored the effect of the NAO on German sea temperatures, i.e. she concealed the medium-term natural climate dynamics. The sharp rise in temperature is largely due to the rise in the NAO, so Lemke is consciously or unintentionally misleading the public here.
One could dismiss this as a political move. But why are the scientists, who should know better, remaining silent? They are remaining silent for a good reason: because anyone who gets into a fight with the Greens this day and age has to fear the most serious personal and career consequences. There is an FFF mob being stirred up and bullying. It’s better to shut up and let Steffi do it.
Cooling since 2005 unmentioned
Also the Ministry of Transport(!) is to be reproached here. Why was the NAO reference not included? Why was it not mentioned that it has become colder again in recent years (Fig. 4).
There are too many amateurs in the public climate debate. Ms. Lemke fuels fear of climate change, the Ministry fails to provide the context and Die Welt uncritically reports the sorrowful result. And Scientists are remaining silent for fear of reprisals. Something is going wrong in the climate state of Germany.
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