Latest runs by the US NOAA weather agency show October and November being colder than normal. A negative NAO and low solar activity may be behind it.
September is coming to an end and signs of autumn are everywhere. On everyone’s mind now is the question of what kind of winter to expect: bitter cold and white, or wet and mild?
The US weather agency NOAA has just put out its outlook for October and November. Its CFSv2 model foresees colder than normal temperatures for both October and November, from eastern Canada to Russia and from Africa to the Arctic.
Here’s the latest CFSv2 temperature anomaly outlook for October, via Meteociel:
Chart: Meteociel CFSv2
Of course we need to be wary when it comes to the accuracy of these long-term forecasts. Yet, October is right ahead and forecasters should at least have a pretty good idea of how the month will end up. For the time being the weather outlook for first 14 days does look to be on the cool side. But beyond October 15, things do get far more speculative.
Here’s the NOAA CFSv2 for November:
Chart: Meteociel CFSv2
Above for November see that the cold anomalies are projected to spread across Europe, which would mean an early winter start over Europe.
NAO and solar activity
Other reasons why Europe’s coming winter may be a cold one are North Atlantic patterns and solar activity. Europe’s winters are largely dependent on the prevailing North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Recently this index has swung to the negative mode. If this persists then, Europe likely will find itself shivering for awhile.
NAO currently negative. Chart: NOAA.
Looking at the NAO since 1950:
In the 1950s and 10960s, Europe experienced a number of harsh winters. Over the past 8 years, the NAO has been often very positive, meaning milder European winters, which has been the case for that period.
A number of studies have shown that the NAO tends to go negative in the wintertime during periods of low solar activity, which we are now experiencing. Read here, here and here.
Global warming causes both warm and cold!
But for the media and alarmists, if the NOAA projected temperature anomalies for the next two months had been projected to be warm, then manmade global warming would be to blame. And if the temperatures do in fact later come in below average, then that too will be because of global warming-induced weather pattern changes. Such is the “science” of global warming.