Veteran Chemical Engineer: Recent Warming Likely Caused By Relative Humidity Decrease, Not CO2 GHG

Global Warming Driven by Relative Humidity Decrease, Not CO2 GHG! Solution: More Ocean Evaporation

By David R. Motes

veteran chemical engineer recent warming likely caused by relative humidity decrease not co2 ghg

Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is quantitatively driven by a steady relative humidity decrease of 0.13%/year throughout the troposphere since 1970 per the chart below, and not CO2 GHG (Green House Gas).  The resulting evaporation reduction is a 3 factor larger AGW driver than CO2 GHG theory.  These quantitative facts are based on calculations using consensus scientific data and diagrams from CO2 GHG proponent sites such as the IPCC, NASA, NOAA, and the International Energy Agency. The main points of the linked 29-page paper pdf follow:

veteran chemical engineer recent warming likely caused by relative humidity decrease not co2 ghg 1

Global relative humidity throughout the troposphere has fallen steadily since 1970. 

Warming will reverse only when the relative humidity decrease is reversed. 

Relative humidity drives precipitation and evaporation which is responsible for absorption and dispersion of 24% of the solar energy reaching the earth’s surface per the below NOAA solar energy balance.  Evaporation transports this energy to the upper troposphere for radiation to space.  1. This evaporation reduction (ER) radiative energy imbalance (watts/m2) from the above 0.13%/year relative humidity decline is calculated to be a 3 factor higher than the IPCC CO2 GHG energy imbalance.  2. This same ER generates a calculated temperature rise 2.6 times more than the actual measured temperature rise since 1975 using the IPCC Climate Sensitivity factor.

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Above evaporation reduction is driven by CO2 induced plant water use efficiency (WUE) increase. 

81% of the above ER radiative energy imbalance is generated by a CO2 induced 0.70%/year plant water use efficiency (WUE) increase.  In the photosynthesis reaction, higher CO2 allows plants to transpire less water.  The WUE increase and resulting ER decrease are anthropogenic since man generated the atmospheric CO2.  This better explains the correlation between CO2 and temperature since 1900 than CO2 GHG.

Only evaporation reduction fits all the scientific data, not CO2 GHG theory. 

This novel ER science provides an explanation for the undeniable AGW since 1900 that fits all the scientific data as explained in the paper: temperature / CO2 historic correlations, the relative humidity decrease above, solar energy balance above, hydrologic balance above, carbon mass balance below, carbon source for CO2, GHG parameters, etc.  All the ER quantifications are scientific fact and explain the 2 different historic correlations between CO2 and temperature: 1. 1900+ anthropogenic correlation 2. the prior million-year plant biomass correlation.  Engineering quantifications were performed using existing consensus data.  Granted, other climate drivers also exist such as solar effects.

Conversely, CO2 GHG theory remains a largely unquantifiable, problematic theory. By example, eleven CO2 GHG theory problems are quantified and graphically presented (all resolved by ER science).  Our focus was on engineering quantification versus the hereto date presentation of GHG data and theories.

Increasing ocean evaporation is less expensive and more effective than simply reducing annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions.

Quantified problems with the proposed CO2 annual emission reduction plans are:

  1. Focuses on the 1%/year annual contribution and illogically ignores the 99% existing atmospheric CO2.
  2. Focuses solely on reducing the 8% CO2 emissions driver, while ignoring the 92% plant life CO2 driver.

This fresh chemical engineering perspective from a high-altitude sheds new light on an old subject. The above hydrologic balance, above energy balance, below carbon balance, and other calculations detailed in this study have not previously been quantified and summarized as presented.  Again, the full 29-page paper pdf may be viewed or downloaded at which includes a 2-page Abstract of the key points.   All calculations, details, explanations, references and contacts are contained in the linked pdf

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David Motes is a 43-year professional chemical engineer residing in Houston, Texas.    

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