Tag: climate science

Why is future sea level rise still so uncertain?

Three new papers in the last couple of weeks have each made separate claims about whether sea level rise from the loss of ice in West Antarctica is more or less than you might have thought last month and with more or less certainty. Each of these papers make good points, but anyone looking for […]

Unforced Variations: May 2021

This month’s open thread for climate science topics. The post Unforced Variations: May 2021 first appeared on RealClimate.

Nenana Ice Classic 2021

And…. it’s that time again. The clock stopped on the Nenana ice classic this afternoon (April 30, 12:50pm AT). This is pretty much on trend and unsurprising given the relatively slightly cool winter in Alaska. The jackpot on offer this year was $233,591 but will likely be shared among several winners. This year’s ‘break up’ […]

Two graphs show the path to 1.5 degrees

In the Paris Agreement, just about all of the world’s nations pledged to “pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels”. On Saturday, the top climate diplomats from the U.S. and China, John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua, reiterated in a joint statement that they want to step up their […]

Should the official Atlantic hurricane season be lengthened?

By Jim Kossin, Tim Hall, Mike Mann, and Stefan Rahmstorf The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season broke a number of records, with the formation of an unprecedented 30 “named storms” (storms that reach wind-speed intensity of at least 18 m/s and are then given an official name). The season also started earlier than normal. In fact, […]

Unforced Variations: Apr 2021

This month’s open thread for climate science discussions. Be nice, it’s Earth month. The post Unforced Variations: Apr 2021 first appeared on RealClimate.

A potential rule of thumb for hourly rainfall?

Future global warming will be accompanied by more intense rainfall and flash floods due to increased evaporation, as a consequence of higher surface temperatures which also lead to a higher turn-around rate for the global hydrological cycle. In other words, we will see changing rainfall patterns. And if the global area of rainfall also shrinks, […]

The Rise and Fall of the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation”

Two decades ago, in an interview with science journalist Richard Kerr for the journal Science, I coined the term the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” (AMO) to describe an internal oscillation in the climate system resulting from interactions between North Atlantic ocean currents and wind patterns. These interactions were thought to lead to alternating decades-long intervals of […]

Unforced Variations: Mar 2021

This month’s open thread. Northern Hemisphere Spring is on it’s way, along with peak Arctic/minimum Antarctic sea ice, undoubtedly more discussion about the polar vortex, and the sharpening up of the (currently very uncertain) ENSO forecast for the rest of this year.

Laschamps-ing at the bit

A placeholder to provide some space to discuss the paper last week (Cooper et al, 2021) on the putative climate consequences of the Laschamps Geomagnetic Excursion, some 42,000 yrs ago. There was some rather breathless reporting on this paper, but there were also a lot of sceptical voices – not of the main new result […]