There is a new push to reduce CH4 emissions as a possible quick ‘win-win’ for climate and air quality. To be clear this is an eminently sensible idea – as it has been for decades (remember the ‘Methane-to-markets’ initiative from the early 2000s?), but it inevitably brings forth a mish-mash of half-remembered, inappropriate or out-of-date […]
Tag: ipcc
A deep dive into the IPCC’s updated carbon budget numbers
Guest post by Joeri Rogelj (Twitter: @joerirogelj) Since temperature targets became international climate goals, we have been trying to understand and quantify the implications for our global emissions. Carbon budgets play an important role in this translation. Carbon budgets tell us how much CO2 we can emit while keeping warming below specific limits. We can […]
IPCC AR6 Focusses On “Absurd”, “Fairy Tale” Scenarios, Ignores Hundreds Of Publications, Major Factors
Monthly newsletter by Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt The IPCC’s latest climate report was published on August 9th and I have been able to take a look at it. One thing is clear: It will give all the alarmist forces a strong tailwind. But before we look at the IPCC report, we first take a brief look […]
#NotAllModels
The biggest contribution scientists can make to #scicomm related to the newly released IPCC Sixth Assessment report, is to stop talking about the multi-model mean. We’ve discussed the issues in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble many times over the last couple of years – for instance here and here. There are two slightly contradictory features of […]
A Tale of Two Hockey Sticks
Two decades ago, the so-called “Hockey Stick” curve, published in 1999 by me and my co-authors (Mann, Bradley and Hughes, 1999), was featured in the all-important “Summary for Policy Makers” (SPM) of the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment report. The curve, which depicted temperature variations over the past 1000 years estimated from “proxy data such as […]
AR6 of the best
Half a dozen takeaways from a first read of the new IPCC AR6 report. As climate scientists we tend to look at the IPCC reports a little differently than the general public might. Here are a few things that mark this report out from previous versions that relate to issues we’ve discussed here before: Extreme […]
We are not reaching 1.5ºC earlier than previously thought
Guest commentary by Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, and Piers Forster Of all the troubling headlines emerging from the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WG1 report, one warning will surely dominate headlines in the next days and weeks: Earth is likely to reach the crucial 1.5? warming limit in the early 2030s. […]
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
Climate scientists are inordinately excited by the release of a new IPCC report (truth be told, that’s a bit odd – It’s a bit like bringing your end-of-(seven)-year project home and waiting anxiously to see how well it will be received). So, in an uncharacteristically enthusiastic burst of effort, we have a whole suite of […]
Unforced Variations: Aug 2021
This month is IPCC month – the Sixth Assessment Report from Working Group 1 is out on Monday August 9. We’ll have some detailed comments once it’s out, but in the meantime, feel free to speculate widely (always considering that IPCC is restricted to assessing existing literature…). Open thread – please stick to climate science […]
New Study Crushes IPCC Alarm…Hails A 22% Global Decline In Natural Disaster Death Risk Since 1990s
With data showing individual death risk from natural disasters (floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes…) declined from 7.2 per million population in the 1990s to 5.6 in the 2010s, a new study takes aim at the IPCC’s “subjective opinion” labeling method in the manufacture of climate alarm. Per an exhaustive data analysis (Broccard, 2021), both the global-scale […]