Tokyo, Hachij?-jima See No Annual Warming In Decades, January Temperature Trend Continues Decline

By Kirye
and Pierre

January-2021 mean temperature data are in and we’ve added them to the plot to see if the mid-winter month has been warming over the past few decades.

tokyo hachijo jima see no annual warming in decades january temperature trend continues decline - Tokyo, Hachij?-jima See No Annual Warming In Decades, January Temperature Trend Continues Decline

Data source: JMA

Since 1985, the mean monthly temperature for January in Tokyo has been trending downward, showing that winter has gotten a bit harsher lately and thus defying warming predictions.

Next, also using the data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), we plot the mean annual temperature for Tokyo going back more than a quarter century:

tokyo hachijo jima see no annual warming in decades january temperature trend continues decline 1 - Tokyo, Hachij?-jima See No Annual Warming In Decades, January Temperature Trend Continues Decline

Data source: JMA.

The story is the same: moderate cooling – warming predictions defied. Despite the sprawling megalopolis of steel, asphalt and concrete, Tokyo has been cooling off. Obviously there’s something other than trace gas CO2 driving the trends there – probably oceanic cycles – which climate models love to ignore.


Rural island Hachij?-jima

Moving offshore to the Tokyo island of Hachij?-jima, located some 287 kilometers south of Tokyo, thus far away from all the urban sprawl and heat island affects, we look at the latest January mean temperatures going back 50 years:

tokyo hachijo jima see no annual warming in decades january temperature trend continues decline 2 - Tokyo, Hachij?-jima See No Annual Warming In Decades, January Temperature Trend Continues Decline

Data: JMA

January 2021 came in at 10.7°C, and so the longstanding January cooling trend remains (using untampered JMA data).

Natural cycles, no warming in 80 years

Finally we look again at Hachij?-jima mean annual temperature going back to 1950. Has it been warming or cooling?

tokyo hachijo jima see no annual warming in decades january temperature trend continues decline 3 - Tokyo, Hachij?-jima See No Annual Warming In Decades, January Temperature Trend Continues Decline

Data source: JMA.

If there’s global warming, it hasn’t reached Hachij?-jima. If we look closely at the chart, we see there’s something natural and cyclic behind the temperature at the island in the Philippine Sea. it’s not CO2. Overall there hasn’t been any trend in 80 years!

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